The recent natural gas discoveries off Israel’s coast led to a discussion over how to best transfer the gas to Europe.

The paper quotes top Turkish officials as stating they are moving to be in favor of “extensive cooperation” with Israel and Cyprus. Turkish President Abdullah Gul and Energy Minister Taner Yildiz were said to have discussed the issue on Friday at an energy conference in Istanbul. Gul said at the conference that Turkey is “ready to contribute to any constructive project,” according to the report.

While Greek Cyprus disputes the gas finds with Turkish Cyprus and Ankara, building a pipeline through Turkey remains the most economical option. The report also stated that the rapprochement between Turkey and Israel will allow Ankara to cooperate with Jerusalem on a gas project, and that Yildiz has already begun planning for possible options.

Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the Turkish Star last week that Ankara will not accept Israel’s interference in any Muslim country, thus ruling out cooperation with Jerusalem over the crisis in Syria. He also said that the negotiations over the Mavi Marmara flotilla and the conflict in Syria were two separate issues.

Efrat Aviv, a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, told The Jerusalem Post that Turkish media reports have indicated that the country also seeks to be involved in projects with Egypt and Lebanon as part of a regional peace policy.

She said that for Turkey, economic interests often trump other factors, even when it comes to Israel.

Turkey has a team of technical experts working on regional economic cooperation, but on political matters such as the issue of the flotilla, the political leadership has the final say, according to Aviv.

The Turkish media is also reporting on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s trip to the US next week to meet with US President Barack Obama.

The Turkish website Anadolu Agency is highlighting the fact that Erdogan will receive the highest state welcome with two full military honors – one at the airport and the other at the White House. Erdogan is set to stay at Washington’s Blair House, the president’s official guesthouse

Published by: www.jpost.com

Whatever is under the seabed in Syrian waters remains undiscovered but in the wake of major strikes by Israel and Cyprus, and Lebanon supposedly sitting on similar prizes, it’s a pretty good bet Syria has significant gas holdings.

There seems little doubt that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime will eventually be displaced as rebel forces, disunited but backed by most of the Arab powers and, up to a point, the United States and Europe, make steady gains in a war now in its third year.

Rebels seized Syrian oil fields in northeastern Deir al-Zor province near the Iraqi border in late 2012.

This year they’ve pushed into resource-rich Hassaka and Raqqa, securing control of most of Syria’s oil reserves. These total 2.5 billion barrels, a modest tally, although Damascus was earning around $4 billion a year from exports before the anti-Assad uprising began.

Many of the fields are controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra, the most formidable of the Islamist factions with links to al-Qaida.

Gen. Selim Idriss, chief of staff of the Supreme Military Command which supposedly runs dozens of rebel factions, wants to form a 30,000-man secular force to secure the oil fields and other key economic sectors to keep them out of Islamist hands.

He wants the West to provide the $30 million-$40 million a month he says he’d need to do that.

There’s another more important element in this unfolding energy contest in the Middle East and the East Mediterranean.

Key players in this complex competition are Qatar, which is supplying arms and funds to the Syrian rebels, and Turkey, Syria’s northeastern neighbor, which acts as facilitator and also wants to see the Assad regime destroyed.

The tiny emirate is one of the world’s leading gas suppliers and it has long sought to wreck Iranians plans to pump gas westward to Europe via Iraq to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

One of its primary objectives in backing the Syrian rebels has been to ensure that the $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas project signed in 2011 even as the uprising against Assad gathered momentum never gets off the ground.

Both Tehran and Baghdad support Assad’s regime.

Qatar, one of the smallest Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf has for some time sought to establish itself as a regional power, equal if not superior to long-dominant Saudi Arabia.

The battle of the pipelines reflects the growing sectarian rift in the Middle East and the wider Muslim world.

On one side is Islam’s mainstream Sunni sect, with Saudi Arabia at its head. On the other, the Shiites, who broke away in Islam’s early days. This group is led by Iran.

The Americans, and no doubt the Europeans who’d be able to break their dependence on Russian gas if they got supplies via Syria, would be immensely happy with a pipeline that isolates Iran and its allies.

Turkey, which also wants to shed its dependence on Russian gas, would also be happy to be cut in on the Qatari gas flow because that would further Ankara’s ambition to become the region’s pre-eminent energy crossroads.

Energy-short Jordan, too, would partake of the Qatari gas, assuring it of a steady supply, although the Qataris would prefer a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Amman than the Hashemite dynasty, which is looking increasingly shaky amid the turmoil sweeping the Arab world.

All this would profoundly alter the geopolitical and energy landscape in the Middle East, much to the benefit of the United States and Europe.

But the real clincher was the discovery of large gas fields off northern Israel in 2009-10, and later nearby Cyprus. This has already shifted strategic perceptions in the region. The U.S. Geological Survey says there’s 123 trillion cubic feet of gas there.

Israel and Turkey, with U.S. encouragement, are moving toward mending a diplomatic rupture in their strategic partnership. Israel could export its gas to Europe via an undersea pipeline to Turkey.

But before that can happen, Assad has to go, with a secular Sunni-majority successor regime installed in his place.

Published by: www.upi.com

“There are still unsolved issues about Cyprus’ offshore and Russiatakes notice of them,” said Novak during a press meeting after the 12th meeting of the Turkish-Russian Joint Economic Commission in Antalya on April 20.

Russia has close cooperation with Turkey, Novak said. “We would never think to harm business principles considering our friendly relations.” However, Novak said the Samsun-Ceyhan crude pipeline project was in an unclear state, noting that if the projects became fruitful, they could seek a new partner instead of former partner Italian Eni.

Turkey decided to suspend energy projects with Italian giant Eni in retaliation for the company’s involvement in oil and gas drilling off the coast of Greek Cyprus, Energy Minister Taner Yıldız said at the end of March.

Eni has a share in the Samsun-Ceyhan crude pipeline, which is slated to span Turkey from the Black Sea province of Samsun to the oil hub of Ceyhan in the south. Eni, Russia’s Rosneft and Transneft and Turkey’s Çalık are all partners in the project.

Yıldız said that Turkey could consider canceling the Samsun-Ceyhan deal, adding that they could find alternatives to the Samsun-Ceyhan deal if it was canceled. Yıldız said Russia’s Gazprom and Rosneft would not join in projects in Greek Cyprus due to the strategic cooperation agreement between Turkey and Russia.

Trade volume target not ambitious

The aim to reach a trade volume between Russia and Turkey worth of $100 billion is “not that ambitious,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said during a press conference after the 12th meeting of the Turkish-Russian Joint Economic Commission inAntalya April 20.

The current trade volume between both countries is approximately $34 billion. “It [$100 billion] means that we would have to triple our trade volume. If we look to the aspects of our trade the primary import materials are energy resources and metals, at around 87 percent,” he said.

Novak emphasized that priority should be given to diversifying the traded goods. “It is especially important to realize new project in sectors where mostly new technologies are used, such as automotives, the nautical industry, and the machinery sector. Logistical and transportation centers are of great importance in this matter,” Novak said.

For his part, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yıldız stressed that the trade potential between the two countries was huge. “There are nearly 500 Russian companies operating in Turkey, while Turkish construction companies have $50 billion worth of transactions in Russia,” Yıldız said.

Akkuyu nuclear plant to be completed ‘on time’

At the end of the press conference, the ministers held a video conference with Turkish students studying at the National Research Nuclear University in Moscow, who are expected to operate Turkey’s first nuclear plant built by a Turkish-Russian consortium. The students will mark history when they start working in Turkey, the Russian minister said.

Meanwhile, the director of the Akkuyu nuclear plant, Alexander Superfim, assured that work on the plant would be finished on time. It is currently scheduled to be completed in 2019.

Published by:  www.hurriyetdailynews.com

The U.S. Geological Survey Authority estimated the quantities of the natural gas under the sea to be around 122 billion cubic meters accompanied by 1.7 billion barrels of oil which could technically be extracted.

This discovery could cause havoc among the countries overlooking the east of the Mediterranean consisting of Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. This discovery might fuel conflict and ferocious competition among these countries to have the largest chunk of the discovered natural gas, especially in the absence of agreements among them to clearly demarcate the boundaries of their territorial waters.

The discovery has regional and international significance. On the regional side, it will uplift the standard of services to the beneficiary countries, particularly that they are relatively poor in energy sources (oil and natural gas). It will provide them with their energy needs and save them the funds they used to spend on importing natural gas. They will become exporting countries, instead of importing ones.

The challenges of exporting

On the international side, the extraction and exporting of natural gas from the east of the Mediterranean is deemed to face big political, security and economic challenges which may impede cooperation among the countries of the region. Israel, which is counting on its military might and American support, will likely want to grab the shares of the other countries in the discovered natural gas. The Arab-Israeli conflict is still continuing. The state of war is still very much alive between Israel, on one hand, and Syria and Lebanon on the other. There are no clearly defined maritime borders between Israel, Egypt, Lebanon and Palestine. In addition to this, there is a chronic conflict between Turkey and the Cypriot Republic over Northern Cyprus. The implications resulting from the Arab Spring will also have their shadows on the relationships between the countries of the region. The ties between Egypt and Israel have become more complex. Syria is living through a phase of instability for more than two years now. As a result, the development and exporting of the newly discovered natural gas will face serious problems.

The significance of the natural gas discoveries are also reflected by the hectic attempts to control sources. These attempts are not only being made by some Middle Eastern countries like Qatar, which is the second largest natural gas producer after Russia, but also by the European Union countries and China which are main consumers.

Natural gas is a safe and clean energy source compared to nuclear and coal energies. It is the most suitable substitute for nuclear energy being used to operate electricity stations. This has become more obvious after the disaster in the Fukushima electricity station in Japan. It is also a suitable replacement for coal which emits large quantities of carbon. Being a cost-effective source of energy, natural gas is gaining rapid momentum in the world.

Putting gas to use

Egypt needs the discovered natural gas to be able to deal with its enigmatic energy problem and to rectify its deteriorating economic condition. Israel needs it after the semi-free natural gas supplies from Egypt have stopped and also to break its political and economic seclusion resulting from the slackening peace process. Syria needs the natural gas to be able to reconstruct its economy which has been devastated by two years of internal fighting. Turkey, which does not produce either oil or natural gas, needs it not only as an additional source of income but also to give it more importance in the region. Lebanon needs the natural gas to be able to settle its foreign debts which have reached more than $50 billion. Cyprus also needs it to avoid its imminent cash crash.

All the countries of the region, including Israel, should provide huge financial and investment funds to build the basic infrastructure required to produce, transport and export the newly discovered natural gas. These investments may face commercial challenges resulting from the decreasing international prices of gas and also internal political challenges which may result in the unavoidable disagreements on how to exploit the discovered natural gas and if it should be used for local consumption or for export. There are also some security issues involved. Oil and natural gas installations in the east of the Mediterranean must be protected against any possible missile attacks.

When we say the natural gas discoveries in the east of the Mediterranean have economic and security benefits as a safe source of energy, these discoveries may have positive political impact. They may ultimately lead to genuine and lasting peace in the region. How?

First: The establishment of an international company to extract, liquefy and export the natural gas.

Second: This company should be owned by the governments not by individuals or private firms.

Third: The contract establishing the company should clearly stipulate how the dividends will be distributed.

Fourth: The company should have the same status of committing international agreements and treaties.

Fifth: Differences should be settled by international arbitration.

Sixth: Workers in this company should be the citizens of the countries of the region only.

This can be a good start to bring the region’s warring countries together for the first time. It will provide the governments with an opportunity to talk directly to each other to discuss their common issues. The workers will be meeting daily and the senior officials will get together regularly to inspect the workflow.

Some people may jump to the conclusion that I am asking for the impossible and tell me bluntly that this is not the time of miracles. I reply to them that the matter is very simple if there is good intention and a strong political will for peace. There should also be a genuine desire for peace which is not just an empty word to be uttered during formal and diplomatic occasions. It will not be impossible for the officials of the east Mediterranean to get together openly to run their natural gas company, especially that it is no secret that they often meet behind closed doors.

This article was first published in the Saudi Gazette on April 11, 2013.
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Hassan Tahsin is a veteran Egyptian writer and a regular contributor to pan-Arab newspapers, including the Saudi Gazette. His writing focuses on Middle East conflicts and global energy issues. Tahsin’s political analysis particularly centers on Arab-Israeli relations on a regional level, and Egypt’s domestic and foreign policies, including ties with the Western world. Tahsin can be reached at [email protected].

The fallout between Israel and Turkey over the past four years pushed Israel for strategic and economic reasons to cozy up to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey’s historic rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean.

“The relations that were built in the last four years with Greece and Cyprus were to a great extent a result of the severe crisis with Turkey,” Alon Liel, the former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, told SETimes.

Some analysts say this geopolitical and economic calculation could change following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s apology to Turkey for the 2010 raid on the Turkish aid ship, the Mavi Marmara, as it tried to breach an Israeli blockade of Gaza, resulting in the death of nine Turkish activists.

Mavi Marmara led to a severing of relations between once close regional powers. The apology opened the way to a still nascent rapprochement.

The prospect of Turkey and Israel rekindling their once close relationship has many observers looking to the large but disputed gas deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean that could transform the geopolitical future of the region.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said recently the Israeli apology could open the way for energy co-operation between the two countries.

He added Israel’s energy plans in the Eastern Mediterranean “would only be reasonable if Turkey was involved.”

Cyprus and Israel have been mulling building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Cyprus combining both Israeli and Cypriot gas finds in the Eastern Mediterranean. Amid the speculation over bringing Israeli gas to European markets — whether through Turkey or Cyprus — there is the question of how much Israel would decide to export. Hawks in Israel are pushing to keep the gas for domestic consumption to bolster energy security and independence for decades.

Without Israeli investment and gas supplies some energy analysts question whether such a 10 billion euro price tag LNG plant in Cyprus would be economically viable. The cheapest and shortest option to bring Israeli and Cypriot gas to European markets would be through Turkey via a pipeline.

George Leventis, director of the International Security Forum in Nicosia said he thinks Greece and Cyprus will lose leverage now.

“The observation that a revamped alliance between Israel and Turkey will squeeze out Cyprus and Greece is correct,” he told SETimes. “If Israel manages to sell its gas — which already is pumping out of the Tamar gas field — via Turkey then Cyprus [and Greece] stand alone.”

“Israel is considering all possible options in geopolitical-geostrategic terms. If Israel’s choice is for an LNG plant it does make sense to place it in Cyprus rather than the Israeli coast. It will be safer on Cyprus. But this again presupposes that Tel Aviv will play the Cyprus card against Turkey and the current trend is to the opposite,” he added.

Meanwhile, The Cyprus Mail quoted Israeli Deputy Ambassador Shani Cooper as saying that the “the normalisation of relations between Turkey and Israel was an important bilateral step but it will not affect any multilateral, trilateral or bilateral relations between Israel and other countries. Israel will maintain its close relations with Cyprus, and continue strengthening them as we have done the last few years.”

Similarly, Spiros Lambridis, Athens’s new envoy to Israel, said that “regardless of what Israel does with Turkey, we have a strategic relationship that is autonomous and has nothing to do with Turkey,” the Jerusalem Post reported.

Lambridis said the new Israeli-Turkish rapprochement could help regional stability and lessen tensions in the area between Southeast Europe, Asia and the Middle East. “The more tranquility in the region, the better,” he said.

Whatever Israel decides, some observers see the gas row as an opportunity to settle the long standing dispute between the Turkish and Greek Cypriots on the island. The Israel-Turkey rapprochement came only three days before Cyprus was forced to restructure its banking sector to avoid default and an exit from the Eurozone in exchange for a 10 billion euro IMF and European bailout.

Without a strong banking system to prop up the economy, cash-strapped Cyprus now needs to extract natural gas more than ever.

Cyprus seems determined to push ahead on its own if necessary. Foreign Minister Koannis Kasoulides said the island’s natural gas deposits are enough to warrant the construction of LNG plant to export excess supply, regardless of whether Israel decides to be a partner in the project. He added that Israel’s apology to Turkey “doesn’t mean Israel is obliged to follow what Turkey is dictating in this region.”

An Israeli or Cypriot move would run up against Turkey, which demands the consent of Turkish Cypriots as “co-owners of the island” in the extraction of gas. Turkey has already sent its navy to the region to protect Turkish Cypriot interests and said recently energy companies doing business with Cyprus would be barred from current and future energy projects in Turkey.

Turkey would like a negotiated settlement on the island, but it ratcheted up pressure recently by saying for the first time it would push for a two-state solution on the island if no deal on joint exploration could be reached with the Greek half of the island.

Analysts like Ali Balci from the Sakarya University in Turkey argue all sides need to realise that the transfer of energy to the European market requires co-operation among Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Turkey.

“Because of the economic crisis, Cyprus is in need to use these energy fields as soon as possible. This is another incentive to construct peaceful relations among sides. Politics is not always zero-sum,” he toldSETimes.

Published by:  www.setimes.com