Whatever is under the seabed in Syrian waters remains undiscovered but in the wake of major strikes by Israel and Cyprus, and Lebanon supposedly sitting on similar prizes, it’s a pretty good bet Syria has significant gas holdings.
There seems little doubt that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime will eventually be displaced as rebel forces, disunited but backed by most of the Arab powers and, up to a point, the United States and Europe, make steady gains in a war now in its third year.
Rebels seized Syrian oil fields in northeastern Deir al-Zor province near the Iraqi border in late 2012.
This year they’ve pushed into resource-rich Hassaka and Raqqa, securing control of most of Syria’s oil reserves. These total 2.5 billion barrels, a modest tally, although Damascus was earning around $4 billion a year from exports before the anti-Assad uprising began.
Many of the fields are controlled by Jabhat al-Nusra, the most formidable of the Islamist factions with links to al-Qaida.
Gen. Selim Idriss, chief of staff of the Supreme Military Command which supposedly runs dozens of rebel factions, wants to form a 30,000-man secular force to secure the oil fields and other key economic sectors to keep them out of Islamist hands.
He wants the West to provide the $30 million-$40 million a month he says he’d need to do that.
There’s another more important element in this unfolding energy contest in the Middle East and the East Mediterranean.
Key players in this complex competition are Qatar, which is supplying arms and funds to the Syrian rebels, and Turkey, Syria’s northeastern neighbor, which acts as facilitator and also wants to see the Assad regime destroyed.
The tiny emirate is one of the world’s leading gas suppliers and it has long sought to wreck Iranians plans to pump gas westward to Europe via Iraq to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
One of its primary objectives in backing the Syrian rebels has been to ensure that the $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas project signed in 2011 even as the uprising against Assad gathered momentum never gets off the ground.
Both Tehran and Baghdad support Assad’s regime.
Qatar, one of the smallest Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf has for some time sought to establish itself as a regional power, equal if not superior to long-dominant Saudi Arabia.
The battle of the pipelines reflects the growing sectarian rift in the Middle East and the wider Muslim world.
On one side is Islam’s mainstream Sunni sect, with Saudi Arabia at its head. On the other, the Shiites, who broke away in Islam’s early days. This group is led by Iran.
The Americans, and no doubt the Europeans who’d be able to break their dependence on Russian gas if they got supplies via Syria, would be immensely happy with a pipeline that isolates Iran and its allies.
Turkey, which also wants to shed its dependence on Russian gas, would also be happy to be cut in on the Qatari gas flow because that would further Ankara’s ambition to become the region’s pre-eminent energy crossroads.
Energy-short Jordan, too, would partake of the Qatari gas, assuring it of a steady supply, although the Qataris would prefer a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Amman than the Hashemite dynasty, which is looking increasingly shaky amid the turmoil sweeping the Arab world.
All this would profoundly alter the geopolitical and energy landscape in the Middle East, much to the benefit of the United States and Europe.
But the real clincher was the discovery of large gas fields off northern Israel in 2009-10, and later nearby Cyprus. This has already shifted strategic perceptions in the region. The U.S. Geological Survey says there’s 123 trillion cubic feet of gas there.
Israel and Turkey, with U.S. encouragement, are moving toward mending a diplomatic rupture in their strategic partnership. Israel could export its gas to Europe via an undersea pipeline to Turkey.
But before that can happen, Assad has to go, with a secular Sunni-majority successor regime installed in his place.
Published by: www.upi.com
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The Summit which is jointly organized by Global Events Partners (GEP) from the UK and Lebanon’s own Planners and partners S.A.L., will build on the momentum and success of last year’s summit which was held in December 2012, attracting over 330 delegates and 35 speakers from 23 countries representing 150 local and international companies and organizations, including major international oil companies (IOCs).
“We are proud to be the only private event organizing team who is capable of delivering an event in this magnitude in Lebanon,” said Dory Renno, Managing Director of Planners and Partners S.A.L., “We have been able to show that despite what is called instability, if you do things right, the country is a great haven for business and a great attraction for investors.”
Paul Gilbert, Managing Director of GEP, said, “In the coming 2013 edition, we are committed to keeping the highly strategic nature of the event as we are in the process of putting together a very strong conference programme.”
“This year however we are planning to go more in depth in approaching the topics of the summit. This will require giving more time to our speakers, and to provide a bigger added value to attending delegates.”
Gilbert added that the conference may include two separate side track activities that will allow a deeper look at certain topics, and will be announced soon.
With huge international interest in Lebanon’s first exploration and production licensing round, an even greater participation from leading companies is expected this year. “The early response has been great,” explained Gilbert.
Renno highlighted the fact that “The event has established a solid position as a platform for the emerging oil and gas industry in Lebanon.”
“We believe in Lebanon and in its business climate, which makes it a great place for the conferences and exhibitions industry,” said Gilbert. “We also strongly believe that successful conferences like LIOG reflect a positive image about Lebanon as an attractive investment arena.
“Investors who want to be involved in Lebanon should come to events that are organized in Lebanon, experience the wonderful hospitality and the beautiful city of Beirut and importantly to understand first-hand the many opportunities that Lebanon has to offer.”
Following a continuously increasing demand, GEP and Planners & Partners are putting together another event on Lebanon’s infrastructure and the role of private investment. The event, “Lebanon Infrastructure Conference and Exhibition, LICEX 2013”, will be held in October in Beirut.
Lebanon has shown growing prospects of having sizable reserves of hydrocarbons both onshore and offshore. Last February the Ministry of Energy and Water successfully launched the pre-qualification phase for the country’s first bidding round. Over 52 companies have applied to be prequalified, including 14 International oil companies with over US $10 billion of assets each.
Global Events Partners is a UK company based in London, UK, and has organized a number of successful business conferences in various fields around the world. Planners and Partners S.A.L. is a Lebanese corporation operating in Lebanon and has organized and participated in the development of many business events. Officials and staff in both companies have many years of experience in creating industry leading events.
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To learn more about the event, how to participate and other details on the programme, participating delegates, speakers and sponsors, please visit: www.liog-summit.com
]]>Gibran Bassil says 12 companies will bid as operators, while 34 companies prequalified as non-operators.
He told reporters Thursday the licensing round begins on May 2.
Among the companies that will bid as operators are Chevron and Exxon Mobil Corp. from the United States, Repsol of Spain and France’s Total.
Lebanon is otherwise resource poor. Gas discoveries could help pay off Lebanon’s debts, one of the highest rates in the world.
Recent Israeli discoveries of oil and gas have raised tensions between Lebanon and neighbouring Israel, which technically are in a state of war.
Both countries claim a small exploration area of 850 square kilometres (330 square miles) in the Mediterranean.
Published by: www.timescolonist.com
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The U.S. Geological Survey Authority estimated the quantities of the natural gas under the sea to be around 122 billion cubic meters accompanied by 1.7 billion barrels of oil which could technically be extracted.
This discovery could cause havoc among the countries overlooking the east of the Mediterranean consisting of Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, Syria and Palestine. This discovery might fuel conflict and ferocious competition among these countries to have the largest chunk of the discovered natural gas, especially in the absence of agreements among them to clearly demarcate the boundaries of their territorial waters.
The discovery has regional and international significance. On the regional side, it will uplift the standard of services to the beneficiary countries, particularly that they are relatively poor in energy sources (oil and natural gas). It will provide them with their energy needs and save them the funds they used to spend on importing natural gas. They will become exporting countries, instead of importing ones.
On the international side, the extraction and exporting of natural gas from the east of the Mediterranean is deemed to face big political, security and economic challenges which may impede cooperation among the countries of the region. Israel, which is counting on its military might and American support, will likely want to grab the shares of the other countries in the discovered natural gas. The Arab-Israeli conflict is still continuing. The state of war is still very much alive between Israel, on one hand, and Syria and Lebanon on the other. There are no clearly defined maritime borders between Israel, Egypt, Lebanon and Palestine. In addition to this, there is a chronic conflict between Turkey and the Cypriot Republic over Northern Cyprus. The implications resulting from the Arab Spring will also have their shadows on the relationships between the countries of the region. The ties between Egypt and Israel have become more complex. Syria is living through a phase of instability for more than two years now. As a result, the development and exporting of the newly discovered natural gas will face serious problems.
The significance of the natural gas discoveries are also reflected by the hectic attempts to control sources. These attempts are not only being made by some Middle Eastern countries like Qatar, which is the second largest natural gas producer after Russia, but also by the European Union countries and China which are main consumers.
Natural gas is a safe and clean energy source compared to nuclear and coal energies. It is the most suitable substitute for nuclear energy being used to operate electricity stations. This has become more obvious after the disaster in the Fukushima electricity station in Japan. It is also a suitable replacement for coal which emits large quantities of carbon. Being a cost-effective source of energy, natural gas is gaining rapid momentum in the world.
Egypt needs the discovered natural gas to be able to deal with its enigmatic energy problem and to rectify its deteriorating economic condition. Israel needs it after the semi-free natural gas supplies from Egypt have stopped and also to break its political and economic seclusion resulting from the slackening peace process. Syria needs the natural gas to be able to reconstruct its economy which has been devastated by two years of internal fighting. Turkey, which does not produce either oil or natural gas, needs it not only as an additional source of income but also to give it more importance in the region. Lebanon needs the natural gas to be able to settle its foreign debts which have reached more than $50 billion. Cyprus also needs it to avoid its imminent cash crash.
All the countries of the region, including Israel, should provide huge financial and investment funds to build the basic infrastructure required to produce, transport and export the newly discovered natural gas. These investments may face commercial challenges resulting from the decreasing international prices of gas and also internal political challenges which may result in the unavoidable disagreements on how to exploit the discovered natural gas and if it should be used for local consumption or for export. There are also some security issues involved. Oil and natural gas installations in the east of the Mediterranean must be protected against any possible missile attacks.
When we say the natural gas discoveries in the east of the Mediterranean have economic and security benefits as a safe source of energy, these discoveries may have positive political impact. They may ultimately lead to genuine and lasting peace in the region. How?
First: The establishment of an international company to extract, liquefy and export the natural gas.
Second: This company should be owned by the governments not by individuals or private firms.
Third: The contract establishing the company should clearly stipulate how the dividends will be distributed.
Fourth: The company should have the same status of committing international agreements and treaties.
Fifth: Differences should be settled by international arbitration.
Sixth: Workers in this company should be the citizens of the countries of the region only.
This can be a good start to bring the region’s warring countries together for the first time. It will provide the governments with an opportunity to talk directly to each other to discuss their common issues. The workers will be meeting daily and the senior officials will get together regularly to inspect the workflow.
Some people may jump to the conclusion that I am asking for the impossible and tell me bluntly that this is not the time of miracles. I reply to them that the matter is very simple if there is good intention and a strong political will for peace. There should also be a genuine desire for peace which is not just an empty word to be uttered during formal and diplomatic occasions. It will not be impossible for the officials of the east Mediterranean to get together openly to run their natural gas company, especially that it is no secret that they often meet behind closed doors.
This article was first published in the Saudi Gazette on April 11, 2013.
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Hassan Tahsin is a veteran Egyptian writer and a regular contributor to pan-Arab newspapers, including the Saudi Gazette. His writing focuses on Middle East conflicts and global energy issues. Tahsin’s political analysis particularly centers on Arab-Israeli relations on a regional level, and Egypt’s domestic and foreign policies, including ties with the Western world. Tahsin can be reached at [email protected].