By Simos Trevezas
Facts:
Yemen has always been an unstable political country. There are 27 million citizens, two-thirds are Sunni Muslims and one-third are Shiite. Their primitive economy, massive unemployment and a very high level (60 percent) of illiteracy, makes it one of the poorest countries in the Arab world.
In 1992 Houthis were foundend by Iran to oppose the Shiite denomination in Yemen. In June 2004, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, head of the Zaidi Shia launched an uprising complaining for discrimination and aggression by the government but Yemen accused Iran that has been financing and directing the fights in order to create an unstable political situation. The conflicts spread to near governorates displacing hundreds of thousands of people from their places. In 2009 the fights took an international dimension due to Saudi Arabia interference striking Houthis rebels positions near their common boarders. This action triggered the situation even more by the rebels which accused the Saudi’s that are against them, which was denied by Saudi Arabia. In 2015 the rebels invaded into the precedence threatening president Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The outcome was that the president and prime minister tendered their resignations but the parliament refused to accept them in an effort to preserve the institution. Finally, after Hadi pressure the parliament dissolved.
The declaration of Houthis that there are going to fight Al Qaeda made the American government numb about their future actions in the territory. They intentionally forgot to add Iran on their list of countries who fund terrorism and they adopted the idea of providing assistant.
Source:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/Yemen_war_detailed_map.png/1024px-Yemen_war_detailed_map.png
Recent Time:
Obviously Iran is playing a geopolitical game passing the message of the strongest enemy in the Midle East. Based on the recent agreements for the Iranian nuclear program, Iran is demonstrating that they are an aggressive state that is intervening in the Arab world. Their abilities to fund and control terrorist units in comparison with their (possible) nuclear weapons is saying that “it will not be wise not to make a deal with Iran”.
The master plan
Iran’s primary goal is to control the area of Suez Canal and the Red Sea which are the main commercial shipping lanes. That move sets in danger the whole world but mostly Israel, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia by blocking major harbours. In the mean while the Americans can be isolated in their base in Bab-el-Mandeb and will not be able to move their aircraft carriers from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf in case of emergency.
It is clear that Iran took advantage of the chaos in the country in order to proceed on their targets. That’s why they supported the Houthi in Yemen following the same tactics as for Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. It is wiser to find massagers rather than doing the job yourself. The key point on this success was the help that they received by Yemen’s security forces and its intelligence organizations and especially Yemen’s air force.
Source: http://www.safety4sea.com/images/media/icons/yemen.png
The Sunni tribes and the armed Sunni militias are also units that are loyal to the president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and act on the region, which has been supported by Tehran. Houthis, who have 7,000-10,000 fighters, complete a network of allies loyal to Iranian forces.
Nowadays, Saudi Arabia is realizing that the salvation would not come from the US and with Houthis taking over Yemen leaves Saudi Arabia surrounded from all directions by forces loyal to Iran. Strategically, that means that Iran could cause tremendous problems to the entire kingdom or even stop the movement of pilgrims to Mecca via the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Threat to the world’s major oil production point
The most important element of this conflict is that Gulf of Aden is the world’s primary source of oil and gas production. The soonest Iran and their allies take over the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb and mostly control the Strait of Hormuz, they can cut off the oil and gas supply and dry the entire world. This is a direct global threat and that’s why the newly crowned king Salman put himself at the head of a Muslim coalition spanning from Pakistan to Egypt trying to stop the Houthi takeover of southern Yemen.
Source:http://www.seatradeglobal.com/media/k2/items/cache/575c936d4db4be22df8ee7d9eafb93a3_XL.jpg
Taking into consideration all the facts that has led us to this point, it can be easily be recognized that the price of oil can be volatile due to its high risk of trading it and the potential war affair between the states. Moreover, this disruption on the area comes into a crucial time for Iran’s nuclear program, where the biggest economies of the world will decide the framework of its existence. The sanctions that Iran faced since 2012 have harmed their economy (in comparison with the low oil prices) and mostly their oil exports (almost a million barrels a day). The outcome is that Iran has parked unsold crude oil stocks off its coast, mainly on board tankers which nowadays reaches 30 million barrels (2mbbls per ship). The biggest deal that could be accomplished for Iran would be to start exporting crude oil immediately and with a reasonable price.
Simon Trevezas,
Oil and Gas Analyst for CyprusGasNews
Email: [email protected]
Civil Engineer Educator, Specialized on Infrastructure Works, graduate from SELETE. Postgraduate student at MSc Oil and Gas Technology in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute (Kavala). Member of Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) section of Kavala.
References:
- UPDATE 1-Iran storing 30 million barrels of oil at sea | Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/25/iran-crude-ship-idUSL3N0WR4I520150325. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- Η ώρα της αλήθειας στις συνομιλίες για τα πυρηνικά του Ιράν – Ειδήσεις – Κόσμος – in.gr. http://news.in.gr/world/article/?aid=1231396644. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- Νετανιάχου: Επιβραβεύουν το Ιράν για την επιθετικότητά του – Ειδήσεις – Κόσμος – in.gr. http://news.in.gr/world/article/?aid=1231396522. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- US says talks with Iran will go down to the wire – Middle East – Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/US-says-talks-with-Iran-will-go-down-to-the-wire-395528. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- Yemen is just part of Iran’s Mideast master plan – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4641659,00.html. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- «Πυρετός» στη Λωζάννη πριν την εκπνοή της προθεσμίας για το Ιράν – Ειδήσεις – Κόσμος – in.gr. http://news.in.gr/world/article/?aid=1231396458. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- Can the Americans walk away from talks with Iran? – Middle East – Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Can-the-Americans-walk-away-from-Iran-talks-395624. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran-Lausanne-Yemen axis must be stopped – Israel News – Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/International/Iran-nuclear-deal-bears-out-all-of-our-fears-Netanyahu-says-395469. Accessed April 4, 2015.
- As nuclear talks near deadline, Khamenei aide warns of West’s “deceptive tactics” – Middle East – Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/As-nuclear-talks-near-deadline-Khamenei-aide-warns-of-Wests-deceptive-tactics-395618. Accessed April 4, 2015.
